New York, NY – A new Siena College/New York Times survey released Tuesday shows Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani maintaining a commanding lead in the race for New York City mayor, even as former Gov. Andrew Cuomo emerges as his closest rival in specific scenarios.
Mamdani vs. Cuomo: A Tightened Contest
The poll, conducted from September 2 to 6 among 1,284 registered voters, found that Mamdani, a democratic socialist and state assembly member, would edge out Cuomo by just four points (48% to 44%) in a direct two-person contest. That margin is significantly slimmer than Mamdani’s overall advantage in the broader four-way field.
“Cuomo would attract most of the support currently backing Mayor Eric Adams and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, particularly among voters over 45,” said Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute. “That dynamic cuts Mamdani’s lead from 22 points in the full field to only four in a head-to-head matchup.”
Both Cuomo and Adams are running as independents, complicating the general election picture.
The Four-Way Race: Mamdani Dominates
In the actual four-way contest, Mamdani holds a strong lead with 46% of likely voters. Cuomo trails at 23%, while Sliwa garners 15%. Adams, battered by controversy and lagging enthusiasm, is in last place with just 9%.
The survey revealed that Mamdani’s strongest support comes from younger voters and those most concerned with affordability, the central theme of his campaign. Meanwhile, voters over 45 remain more divided, splitting their preferences between Mamdani and Cuomo.
Adams and Sliwa Face Pressure
Speculation continues around whether Adams or Sliwa might exit the race under pressure. Reports last week suggested Adams was in quiet talks with advisers close to former President Trump about a potential federal role in exchange for bowing out. However, Adams publicly denied he would leave the race. At Gracie Mansion on Friday, he insisted, “I am staying in,” while adding he would “always listen if called to serve our country.”
Similar rumors have swirled around Sliwa, though the Guardian Angels founder dismissed them outright, saying he has not been contacted and has no interest in joining Trump’s circle.
Levy stressed that Cuomo’s path to victory depends heavily on Adams and Sliwa stepping aside: “Cuomo would need both to withdraw in order to have a realistic chance of overtaking Mamdani.”
Mamdani’s Campaign Message
Mamdani’s campaign has leaned hard into cost-of-living concerns, framing New York as a city in crisis for working families.
“Our focus on affordability is resonating with voters across the city,” said Dora Pekec, Mamdani’s spokesperson. “New Yorkers see Zohran Mamdani as the only candidate ready to fight for working people, not the billionaire class. This campaign is about building a movement that puts residents first.”
The Siena/NYT poll underscores that message: a plurality of Mamdani’s supporters identified affordability as the city’s most pressing issue.
Looking Ahead
With less than two months until Election Day, Mamdani remains the clear frontrunner. Still, the poll highlights how quickly the dynamics could shift if Adams or Sliwa were to withdraw, giving Cuomo a narrower but still difficult path to the mayoralty.
For now, Mamdani’s lead, rooted in energized younger voters and the affordability agenda, positions him as the candidate to beat on the road to City Hall.
By Midtown Times Staff
September 9, 2025
